Last Update: 19th July 2023

Summary / Overview: Ukraine / Russia

Phase 2 Ukraine Counteroffensive: Ukrainian Forces (URKF) concentrated on the eastern frontlines – especially around Bakhmut, securing the high ground around the town – whilst maintaining an operational pause along the southern front. The Ukrainian counteroffensive remains “slow but steady” with Mainstream Media (MSM - ISW) analysing that “In five weeks, Ukrainian forces have liberated nearly the same amount of territory that Russian forces captured in over six months.” We concur with this observation. Putin continues to paint UKRF as losing the counteroffensive, but UKRF have now almost encircled RUF in Bakhmut over the past two weeks, using artillery to destroy their defensive trench line positions. UKRF gains in the east come as ground sources and MSM (ISW) note that RUF are heavily reinforcing Bakhmut and the surrounding area. The UKRF ME remains to secure the high ground to the north and south of the town, then pushing towards Krasna Hora and the Main Supply Route (MSR) M-03/ E40, thereby cutting off logistical supplies towards Luhansk in the east and Horlivka in the south.

Horizon Planning:

UKRF will maintain their attempts to achieve fire-control over the MSR M-03 and Luhansk City, whilst defending against RUF attacks in Kharkiv Oblast. Meanwhile, UKRF will move forward slowly along the southern offensive line, further degrading RUF artillery assets and rear line supplies:

• Fighting will remain kinetic for the next two weeks especially in the area of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, but Russia is unlikely to be able to gain significant ground or impact MSRs along the front line. They do not have enough personnel or munitions to push forward any significant advantage here even if they do achieve a breakthrough. UKRF are highly likely to take more ground IVO Bakhmut, near Andriivka (10km south of Bakhmut). Indeed, they have already crossed and secured the Siverskyi Donetsk Canal, and are now defending new positions on the higher ground around Bakhmut against Russian ground attacks.

• UKRF will continue to degrade RUF artillery positions and personnel behind the frontline, as they pressure the C2 and munitions depots with further targeted strikes. The instability in RUF command structure and the fact that many RUF still have not been rotated out of the frontline area for over 5 months will lead to increased fraying in both morale and discipline, allowing UKRF to sit and “wait out” for an eventual weakness. RUF no longer have the ability to plug many gaps in the southern front lines, so it is likely literally a matter of time – likely less than two months - before an area becomes weakened and then collapses against UKRF pressure. When that happens, UKRF will force the gap – using fresh troops from reserve Brigades to push forward, potentially IVO Robotyne and towards Tokmak.