Last Update: 24th July 2023

Summary / Overview: Syria

Northwest Syria: Russia exercised its veto power at the United Nations Security Council on 11 July 2023, blocking a resolution that aimed to extend the mandate for humanitarian aid deliveries from Turkey into rebel-held Northwest Syria through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. The region is home to nearly 4.5 million people, many who are internally displaced people (IDP) through the civil war which started in March 2011 and who critical need of humanitarian assistance, with the COVID-19 pandemic and February earthquakes exacerbating their needs.

Following its veto, Russia proposed its own resolution as an alternative, suggesting a mere six-month extension instead, as  President Bashir Assad’s government stated that aid delivery be conducted in complete coordination with Damascus via the Bab al-Hawa border crossing from Turkey for six months. Syria also requested that the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) would be responsible for managing aid operations whilst demanding that the UN should refrain from engaging with "terrorist organizations", a point that UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has said is “neither consistent with the independence of the United Nations nor practical.” Indeed, humanitarian organizations have argued that the timeframe proposed by Russia is inadequate for proper planning and effectiveness, and that it would result in the need for another renewal of the operation in early January, a particularly challenging time during the harsh winter season.

Horizon Planning

With the region controlled by different sides including - Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) formerly known as al-Nusra Front, Turkish-backed rebels, and the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – humanitarian agencies will have an already complex environment further complicated by the politics surrounding access through the Bab al-Hawa crossing:

·         Although HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, have been undergoing an image change in the past few years by distancing themselves from their past ties with al-Qaeda and IS (Islamic State), aiming for wider acceptance and a permanent role in Syria’s future, the western countries, most importantly the US, are unlikely to change their position towards HTS and al-Jolani in the foreseeable future. This, and the refusal by HTS to work with SARC, notably during the February earthquakes, will likely limit the transport of aid to those most affected in the north-west.

·         Russia’s veto at the UNSC, thereby allowing its ally Syria to propose its own route, and Damascus’ lack of clarification over what constitutes a terrorist organisation will likely mean that aid will be restricted into the north-west. Even if a diplomatic solution is instigated within the next six months, the current situation will likely degrade networks that have been previously used by the UN and other organisations in the area. That being said, the ICRC is a recognized and respected humanitarian organization, which has seen limited controversy over its current work within Syria, and although it has not worked with the UN, is likely to be able to implement new networks within the north-east, and work with a wide range of actors within the area.

In Assad government-controlled areas, the Syrian pound has hit a historic low on 19 July 2023 by trading at more 11,000 pounds to the US dollar. The collapse of the Syrian pound began earlier this year when it was valued at around 6,500 pounds to the US dollar and was caused by high inflation and a stagnant economy. Following the earthquake that hit northwest Syria, the World Bank projected a 5.5 percent contraction in Syria’s economy for 2023.